Super El Niño:1st Odds For Now A Coin Flip
Odds For “Super El Niño” Are Now A Coin Flip, According To NOAA’s December Update. However, it might not act like one.
The anomalies in surface temperatures (SST) that “abated in early December” after increasing in November were suggestive of a strong El Niño throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
This indicates that a specific area of the equatorial Pacific Ocean has experienced sea-surface temperatures that are more than 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above the average over a three-month period.
The most recent three-month average, which covered the months of September through November, was 3.64 degrees Fahrenheit higher than average.
According to NOAA, El Niño conditions will persist into the winter.
El Niño has a 54% chance of strengthening even more and becoming historically strong, according to NOAA.
extraordinary El Niño, from November to January.
Super El Niño:1st Odds For Now A Coin Flip
This implies that during a three-month period, sea-surface temperatures would surpass the threshold of 3.6 degrees warmer than average.
In November, it exceeded that threshold for the most recent one-month period. Since 1950, there have been three instances of super El Niño winters: in 2015–16, 1997–98, and 1982–83.
The most recent model forecasts indicate that El Niño will, as is customary, fade and that conditions will become “neutral” (neither El Niño nor La Niña) by late spring or summer.
Super El Niño:1stOdds For Now A Coin Flip
That’s why this is important: An El Niño is the periodic warming of a Pacific Ocean strip that runs parallel to the equator.
The equatorial Pacific’s sea surface temperatures indicate the development of an El Niño, according to NOAA.
Changes in the atmosphere are accompanied by ocean temperatures that have risen by at least 0.9 degrees above average for at least a month. June marked the initial crossing of that threshold for the current event.
El Niño has the ability to impact weather patterns in the United States and other countries thousands of miles away.
The colder months of the year can be the most affected by El Niños since most of them peak in late fall or winter.
Events of El Niño happen roughly every two to seven years.
This is how El Niño usually impacts winter conditions in the United States: Generally speaking, the traditional strong El Niño winter is typically wetter than usual across a large portion of the southern United States, from the Carolinas to portions of California, partly because a jet stream path that is stronger and more southern.
A stronger El Niño typically results in a warmer winter for most of the northern United States.
We discovered that El Niño causes the snowiest winters for some cities in the Southwest, Southern Plains, and mid-Atlantic.
However, this El Niño could be distinct: Not every El Niño is created equal.
Not all El Niños, even the strongest ones, will have the same significant effects on the weather pattern as the map above.
This was demonstrated by the stark differences in the results of the last two strong El Niños. For instance, during a strong El Niño winter, winter 2009–10 in the United States was significantly colder than predicted.
(READ MORE: The Most Recent Severe El Niños Indicate a Range of Potential Winter Results)
Additionally, there are signs At least initially, this strong El Niño may be acting like 2009–2010.
The multivariate ENSO index, or MEI, is a variable that scientists use to measure not only ocean water temperatures but also the atmosphere’s reaction to it.
Plotting that index shows that the strong El Niño response in the atmosphere is more similar to 2009–10 than it is to previous super El Niños like 2015–16, 1997–98, or 1982–83.
The large-scale pattern of rising and sinking air in the atmosphere that makes this El Niño different from others was also noted by meteorologist Ben Noll, who is based in New Zealand.
El Niño is not the ultimate solution: El Niño’s effects can be overridden by two wild cards that meteorologists keep an eye on.
Greenland blocking and the polar vortex have an influence during some parts of winter.
Although predicting the impact of such factors months in advance is challenging, there are indications of a weakening or stretching of the polar vortex, which could result in increased blocking of Greenland and a colder pattern in the United States in January or February.
El Niño’s decline: As previously mentioned, the most recent model predictions indicate that El Niño might end by late spring or summer.
That is normal, even in cases of stronger El Niños. The average El Niño lasts nine to twelve months, according to NOAA.
In 2024, that disappearance might have at least one noteworthy effect.
20 storms and an average number of hurricanes suggested that El Niño had its usual moderating effect on the Atlantic hurricane season of 2023.
Now, picture eliminating El Niño’s suppressive effect while maintaining an abundance of potentially record-warm ocean water in the Atlantic Basin for the upcoming hurricane season. Unfortunately, just those two factors support far above-average activity in the Atlantic Basin in 2024.
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